Hierarchical elimination-by-aspects and nested logit models of stated preferences for alternative fuel vehicles

1. INTRODUCTION Since the late 1960s, transport demand analysis has been the context for significant developments in model forms for the representation of discrete choice behaviour. Such developments have adhered almost exclusively to the behavioural paradigm of Random Utility Maximisation (RUM), first proposed by Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960). A common argument for the allegiance to RUM is that it ensures consistency with the fundamental axioms of microeconomic consumer theory and, it follows, permits interface between the demand model and the concepts of welfare economics (e.g. Koppelman and Wen, 2001). The desire to better represent observed choice, which has driven developments in RUM models, has been somewhat at odds, however, with the frequent assault on the utility maximisation paradigm, and by implication RUM, from a range of literatures. This critique has challenged the empirical validity of the fundamental axioms (e.g. Kahneman and Tversky, 2000; Mclntosh and Ryan, 2002; Saelensmide, 1999) and, more generally, the realism of the notion of instrumental rationality inherent in utility maximisation (e.g. Hargreaves-Heap, 1992; McFadden, 1999; Camerer, 1998). Emanating from these literatures has been an alternative family of so-called non-RUM models, which seek to offer greater realism in the representation of how individuals actually process choice tasks. The workshop on Methodological Developments at the 2000 Conference of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research concluded: 'Non-RUM models deserve to be evaluated side-by-side with RUM models to determine their practicality, ability to describe behaviour, and usefulness for transportation policy. The research agenda should include tests of these models' (Bolduc and McFadden, 2001 p326). The present paper, together with a companion paper, Batley and Daly (2003), offer a timely contribution to this research priority. Batley and Daly (2003) present a detailed account of the theoretical derivation of RUM, and consider the relationships of two specific RUM forms; nested logit [NL] (Ben-Akiva, 1974; Williams, 1977; Daly and Zachary, 1976; McFadden, 1978) and recursive nested extreme value [RNEV] (Daly, 2001 ; Bierlaire, 2002; Daly and Bierlaire, 2003); to two specific non-RUM forms; elimination-by-aspects [EBA] (Tversky, 1972a, 1972b) and hierarchical EBA [HEBA] (Tversky and Sattath, 1979). In particular, Batley and Daly (2003) establish conditions under which NL and RNEV derive equivalent choice probabilities to HEBA and EBA, respectively. These findings would seem to ameliorate the concern that the application of RUM models to data generated by non-RUM choice processes could introduce significant biases. That aside, substantive issues remain as to how non-RUM models can best be specified so as to yield useful and robust information in both estimation and forecasting contexts, and how their empirical performance compares with RUM models. Such issues are the focus of the present paper, which applies non-RUM models to a real empirical context

Econometric modelling of competition between train ticket types

INTRODUCTION The railways in Britain have a long history of using price discrimination backed up with product differentiation to significantly increase revenue over what might be obtained in an undifferentiated market. Whilst not as sophisticated as the yield management systems widely used in the airline industry, rail ticketing strategies are continually evolving, with new products emerging, unsuccessful products discontinued and gradual refinement of others. In recent years, there has been increased interest in modelling competition between different ticket types. The re-organisation of the railway industry in Great Britain has provided a greater commercial incentive to operators to price differentiate in order to maximise the revenue from their franchises. The policy of moderation of competition has allowed limited on-track competition, largely based around overlapping franchises but also with service extensions and new entrants, and this has stimulated product development and hence interest in ticket choice. Partly in response to the greater commercialisation of the railway industry, particularly where here is a degree of market power, the regulatory bodies have taken a greater interest in the range of tickets offered and their associated prices, travel restrictions and availability (SRA, 2003). This paper reports on research which was conducted as part of an update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH), which contains a forecasting framework and recommended demand parameters that are widely used in the railway industry in Great Britain (ATOC, 2002), and as part of a project to provide the Strategic Rail Authority with evidence on cross elasticities between ticket types for use in its review of how it regulates rail fares

Letter to the editor concerning the article “Performance of gymnastics skill benefits from an external focus of attention” by Abdollahipour, Wulf, Psotta & Nieto (2015)

Abdollahipour, Wulf, Psotta, & Nieto (2015) recently published data in Journal of Sports Sciences to show that an external focus of attention promotes superior performance effects (gymnastics jump height and judged movement form score) when compared to internal or control foci during skill execution without an implement involved. While we do not contest the veracity of findings reported, nor others that have been used to support beneficial effects of an external focus of attention, in this Letter to the Editor we comment on considerable methodological limitations associated with this and previous studies which, we suggest, have resulted in serious theoretical oversights regarding the control of movement and, most crucially from our practitioner perspective, suboptimal recommendations for applied coaching practice. Specifically, we discuss the lack of consideration towards translational research in this area, the problematic nature of attentional focus cues employed, interpretation of findings in relation to other applied recommendations and coherence with mechanistic underpinning and finally, the representative nature of task involved. In summary, while (laboratory) research evidence may appear to be conclusive, we suggest that focus of attention effects are in need of more ecologically valid and rigorous testing and consideration of current coaching practices if it is to optimally serve the applied sporting domain that it purportedly aims to

Anomalous Elasticity of Polymer Cholesterics

We show that polymer cholesterics have much longer pitches than comparable short molecule cholesterics, due to their anomalous elasticity. The pitch $P$ of a chiral mixture with concentration $c$ near the racemic (non-chiral) concentration $c^*$ diverges like $\vert c-c^*\vert^{-\nu}$ with $\nu=1.43 \pm 0.04$ (for short molecule cholesterics $\nu=1$). The short molecule law is recovered for polymers of finite molecular length $\ell$ once the pitch is longer than a length that diverges like $\ell^\gamma$ with $\gamma=0.67 \pm 0.01$. Our predictions could be tested by measurements of the pitch in DNA.Comment: 12 pages, Plain TeX, (1 postscript figure, compressed, uuencoded and appended to paper), minor corrections, IASSNS-HEP-94/4

A New Phase of Tethered Membranes: Tubules

We show that fluctuating tethered membranes with {\it any} intrinsic anisotropy unavoidably exhibit a new phase between the previously predicted ``flat'' and ``crumpled'' phases, in high spatial dimensions $d$ where the crumpled phase exists. In this new "tubule" phase, the membrane is crumpled in one direction but extended nearly straight in the other. Its average thickness is $R_G\sim L^{\nu_t}$ with $L$ the intrinsic size of the membrane. This phase is more likely to persist down to $d=3$ than the crumpled phase. In Flory theory, the universal exponent $\nu_t=3/4$, which we conjecture is an exact result. We study the elasticity and fluctuations of the tubule state, and the transitions into it.Comment: 4 pages, self-unpacking uuencoded compressed postscript file with figures already inside text; unpacking instructions are at the top of file. To appear in Phys. Rev. Lett. November (1995

The Fast Wandering of Slow Birds

I study a single "slow" bird moving with a flock of birds of a different, and faster (or slower) species. I find that every "species" of flocker has a characteristic speed $\gamma\ne v_0$, where $v_0$ is the mean speed of the flock, such that, if the speed $v_s$ of the "slow" bird equals $\gamma$, it will randomly wander transverse to the mean direction of flock motion far faster than the other birds will: its mean-squared transverse displacement will grow in $d=2$ with time $t$ like $t^{5/3}$, in contrast to $t^{4/3}$ for the other birds. In $d=3$, the slow bird's mean squared transverse displacement grows like $t^{5/4}$, in contrast to $t$ for the other birds. If $v_s\neq \gamma$, the mean-squared displacement of the "slow" bird crosses over from $t^{5/2}$ to $t^{4/3}$ scaling in $d=2$, and from $t^{5/4}$ to $t$ scaling in $d=3$, at a time $t_c$ that scales according to $t_c \propto|v_s-\gamma|^{-2}$.Comment: 10 pages; 5 pages of which did not appear in earlier versions, but were added in response to referee's suggestion

Alien Registration- Toner, Murnie J. (Bingham, Somerset County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/8592/thumbnail.jp

Flocking Regimes in a Simple Lattice Model

We study a one-dimensional lattice flocking model incorporating all three of the flocking criteria proposed by Reynolds [Computer Graphics vol.21 4 (1987)]: alignment, centring and separation. The model generalises that introduced by O. J. O' Loan and M. R. Evans [J. Phys. A. vol. 32 L99 (1999)]. We motivate the dynamical rules by microscopic sampling considerations. The model exhibits various flocking regimes: the alternating flock, the homogeneous flock and dipole structures. We investigate these regimes numerically and within a continuum mean-field theory.Comment: 24 pages 7 figure

Minimal model for active nematics: quasi-long-range order and giant fluctuations

We propose a minimal microscopic model for active nematic particles similar in spirit to the Vicsek model for self-propelled polar particles. In two dimensions, we show that this model exhibits a Kosterlitz-Thouless-like transition to quasi-long-range orientational order and that in this non-equilibrium context, the ordered phase is characterized by giant density fluctuations, in agreement with the predictions of Ramaswamy {\it et al.} [Europhys. Lett. {\bf 62}, 196 (2003)].Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 pages, 4 figure